Economists Think China’s Economy Might or Might Not Have A Bright Immediate Future

The Chinese national economy continues to exceed performance expectations, as recent statistics indicate that the country’s gross domestic product has grown some 6.4 percent in the first quarter of 2019 as compared to Q1 2018. China’s economy, the second-largest in the world in terms of GDP and the largest in purchasing power parity (PPP), was slated to grow just 6.2 percent in the current year’s first quarter according to the country’s official growth forecasts.

Despite the maintenance of the country’s rapid economic growth over the past few years, many financial and economic experts from around the world are pessimistic about the future of the country’s economy.

Looking at hard statistics regarding recent economic growth in China

In March 2019, the most recent month for which current statistics are available, the purchasing managers’ index, which is used to indicate how strong the current manufacturing sector is in a country – of China came in at 50.5. This was a major uptick from the month prior, in which the metric held steady at just 49.2. In general, marks above 50 equate to a substantial expansion in a country’s industrial sector. 

Based on the past, when a country’s purchasing managers’ index rises from below 50 to above the mark in a month’s time, the country’s entire economy – not just the manufacturing sector – will experience an increase in growth in one or both of the next two quarters. 

The country’s retail sales also jumped up by a margin of 8.3 percent in the year’s first quarter. Further, the aggregate of fixed-asset investments grew some 6.3 percent in Q1 2019. 

Last year’s statistics, however, for these marks were 9.5 percent and seven percent. The backward growth in both of these Chinese economic sectors has left some economists and financial experts feeling pessimistic about the future of the country’s economic fortunes. 

Could China be almost done with its ultra-rapid Internet sharing economy industry growth?

In recent years, Chinese consumers’ collective interest in the Internet-assisted asset sharing economy has grown tremendously. This growth rate is far higher than most countries’ across the seven continents and Oceania. 

Experts fear that this growth could be nearing a slowdown. Although the country’s Internet sharing economy will unarguably continue to grow once this downtick comes about, the change in growth could mean bad news for the People’s Republic of China.

This is further backed by the widely-held observation that recent upticks in the Chinese unemployment rate have been offset by the growth of the country’s web-based sharing economy.

What’s behind these pessimistic economists’ collectively poor outlook?

Some experts based in the United States are subject to biases related to their increased exposure to American media outlets’ broadcasts and publications, which pump out more negative opinions and mentions of China, its businesses, and its government than most countries’ news outlets. 

Another reason explaining some financial and economic experts’ pessimistic outlooks comes from the unavoidable fact that other countries’ experts simply don’t know China’s economy as well as experts who have a constant, hands-on relationship with the country’s market factors.

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